Favourites shorter than 1/4

The rules

1. The favourite starts at shorter than 1/4.

This rule depends on the starting price, which is only settled at the off. The record is exact, but following it live means acting on the betting just before the race.

Record, 2020-07-06 to 2026-10-17

Following this blindly lost 0.1p of every £1 staked.

Bets

862

742 winners

Strike rate

86.1%

average SP 0.2/1

Profit / loss

-1.2 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

-0.1%

per 100 staked

Longest losing run

3

bets in a row

Deepest drawdown

11 pts

peak to trough

Winners vs market

1.14

650 expected from the prices

Live record since 2026-10-13

The rule was frozen on 2026-10-13 and has not been changed since. Everything above that date is a backtest; this is how it has done on races it was never fitted to. It takes a few hundred bets before this says much.

Picks as first seen

• 2026-10-15Perth

Running profit

Last 12 months

Bets

178

154 winners

Strike rate

86.5%

average SP 0.2/1

Profit / loss

-0.3 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

-0.2%

per 100 staked

The same 178 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +3.8 pts, 2.1% return on stakes.

Warning signs

None of the 7 warning signs made a clear difference to this system's selections.

Too few selections to judge: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, flattered closer, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Last 12 months only.

By year

By race type

Latest selections

Date↓		Horse	Course	Race	Pos	SP	Return
2026-10-16		EXTRAGALACTICJ: Cieren FallonT: William HaggasREDCAR 13:20	REDCAR	13:20 Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)	1/10	2/9	+0.22
2026-10-15		KABRAL DU MATHANJ: Harry SkeltonT: Dan SkeltonPERTH 13:25	PERTH	13:25 Download The Free Racing TV App Now Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)	1/4	2/9	+0.22
2026-10-12		RHYTHM OF MY HEARTJ: Hector CrouchT: David Menuisier⚑ Eye catcherKEMPTON PARK 18:15	KEMPTON PARK	18:15 Juddmonte EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)	1/10	2/11	+0.18
2026-10-12		POTTERS CHARMJ: Sam Twiston-DaviesT: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies⚑ Repeat jumping errorsWORCESTER 15:07	WORCESTER	15:07 Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)	1/3	1/5	+0.20
2026-10-11		BENGAL TIGERJ: Ryan MooreT: Aidan O'Brien⚑ Eye catcherNAAS 13:56	NAAS	13:56 Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden	1/7	2/9	+0.22
2026-10-08		DORIGOJ: Kevin StottT: Kevin RyanSOUTHWELL 20:00	SOUTHWELL	20:00 Free Bets On Attheraces.com Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)	2/11	1/7	-1.00
2026-10-05		IRON DOMEJ: Hector CrouchT: Clive CoxWOLVERHAMPTON 17:30	WOLVERHAMPTON	17:30 Download The Raceday Ready App Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/4	1/6	+0.17
2026-10-02		INKBERROWJ: Harry DaviesT: Simon & Ed Crisford⚑ Eye catcherWOLVERHAMPTON 14:41	WOLVERHAMPTON	14:41 bet365 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/7	2/9	+0.22
2026-09-30		SIXANDAHALFJ: Keith DonoghueT: Gavin CromwellSLIGO 14:20	SLIGO	14:20 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Steeplechase	2/2	2/9	-1.00
2026-09-30		SOD HALL LANEJ: Zak WheatleyT: Declan CarrollMUSSELBURGH 13:38	MUSSELBURGH	13:38 British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)	2/3	1/9	-1.00
2026-09-23		PURE CONCEPTJ: Sean LeveyT: Richard HannonKEMPTON PARK 16:55	KEMPTON PARK	16:55 Unibet/ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)	1/9	1/10	+0.10
2026-09-15		THAMES WATERMANJ: Finley MarshT: Richard HughesWOLVERHAMPTON 16:59	WOLVERHAMPTON	16:59 Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com "Confined" Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D, Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race)	1/10	1/9	+0.11
2026-09-14		MAJESTIC JUDEJ: Cieren FallonT: William HaggasTHIRSK 15:21	THIRSK	15:21 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB Race)	1/4	2/9	+0.22
2026-09-13		STAR OF STATEJ: Ryan MooreT: Joseph Patrick O'BrienCURRAGH 14:15	CURRAGH	14:15 Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes	1/15	1/5	+0.20
2026-09-12		AFFETTUOSOJ: Ray DawsonT: Roger VarianLINGFIELD PARK 13:38	LINGFIELD PARK	13:38 Alan Rae Smith Errant Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)	1/5	1/9	+0.11
2026-09-09		MARCO POLOJ: W. M. LordanT: Aidan O'BrienCORK 16:40	CORK	16:40 Coolmore Stud Gleneagles Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden	1/8	1/8	+0.13
2026-09-09		AL JOLSONJ: Harry DaviesT: Simon & Ed Crisford⚑ Eye catcherREDCAR 14:21	REDCAR	14:21 Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)	1/9	1/6	+0.17
2026-09-08		NAJIDI STORMJ: Lewis EdmundsT: Harry CharltonGOODWOOD 13:30	GOODWOOD	13:30 Cleansing Service Group Novice Stakes (gbb Race)	2/3	1/33	-1.00
2026-09-07		PON PON DALIAJ: Billy LoughnaneT: Marco BottiWOLVERHAMPTON 18:00	WOLVERHAMPTON	18:00 Free Bets On attheraces.com Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (GBB Race)	1/6	2/11	+0.18
2026-09-02		YORDANJ: Harry VigorsT: Kevin RyanNEWCASTLE 14:45	NEWCASTLE	14:45 Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)	1/10	2/13	+0.15
2026-09-02		ETIENNEJ: Saffie OsborneT: Richard SpencerBATH 14:00	BATH	14:00 Bath Country Race Day, What A Way To Make Weekend! EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)	1/6	1/25	+0.04
2026-08-26		KAINDYJ: Ray DawsonT: Roger VarianKEMPTON PARK 18:51	KEMPTON PARK	18:51 Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (gbb Race)	1/7	2/9	+0.22
2026-08-22		PLAYFUL FOXJ: Harry SkeltonT: Dan SkeltonNEWTON ABBOT 13:55	NEWTON ABBOT	13:55 Celebrating National Racehorse Week Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)	1/4	2/13	+0.15
2026-08-21		BINTWARDJ: Ray DawsonT: Roger Varian⚑ Slow startSALISBURY 19:27	SALISBURY	19:27 Signs In Motion British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/5	1/18	+0.06
2026-08-21		PIKACHUJ: David EganT: Charlie JohnstonHAMILTON PARK 16:33	HAMILTON PARK	16:33 Why Settle Technology AI Adoption EBF Maiden Stakes (Hamilton 2yo Series Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)	1/3	1/25	+0.04
2026-08-20		SPIRITED GESTUREJ: Robert HavlinT: John & Thady GosdenNEWCASTLE 19:24	NEWCASTLE	19:24 Compare Betting Sites At Gambling.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)	1/8	1/6	+0.17
2026-08-18		HOPE RISINGJ: Rob HornbyT: Jamie SnowdenCHEPSTOW 14:15	CHEPSTOW	14:15 Community Engagement Programme Handicap Stakes	1/2	1/16	+0.06
2026-08-16		A BOY NAMED SUSIEJ: Oisin MurphyT: Donnacha Aidan O'BrienCURRAGH 16:25	CURRAGH	16:25 Newbridge Silverware Royal Whip Stakes (Group 3)	1/4	1/7	+0.14
2026-08-16		PALLADASJ: Billy LoughnaneT: Charlie ApplebySOUTHWELL 14:35	SOUTHWELL	14:35 LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/10	2/11	+0.18
2026-08-14		NATIONAL HONOURJ: James DoyleT: Charlie ApplebyTHIRSK 18:08	THIRSK	18:08 Jw 4x4 Northallerton Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/5	1/5	+0.20
2026-08-14		FINAL OBJECTIVEJ: James DoyleT: Hamad Al Jehani⚑ Eye catcherTHIRSK 17:33	THIRSK	17:33 Ray And Eileen Mclean Memorial EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)	1/11	1/6	+0.17
2026-08-14		MATINSJ: Cieren FallonT: William HaggasYARMOUTH 14:03	YARMOUTH	14:03 Download The QuinnBet App "Confined" Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Twice) (GBB Race)	1/2	1/33	+0.03
2026-08-11		APULIA BAYJ: James DoyleT: Simon & Ed Crisford⚑ Eye catcherNOTTINGHAM 17:45	NOTTINGHAM	17:45 Download The Oddschecker App Nursery Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)	1/2	1/6	+0.17
2026-08-09		AL WATHBAJ: Connor PlanasT: Charlie ApplebyLEICESTER 14:24	LEICESTER	14:24 Loros - Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	2/3	2/11	-1.00
2026-08-06		CERRO BLANCOJ: Billy LoughnaneT: Charlie ApplebyNEWMARKET 16:00	NEWMARKET	16:00 Knight Frank Cambridge Connections Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/4	1/25	+0.04
2026-08-02		LINFORDJ: Mr P W MullinsT: W. P. MullinsGALWAY 17:30	GALWAY	17:30 Fr. Breen Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race	2/6	2/11	-1.00
2026-07-26		ASSETJ: Luke MorrisT: Sir Mark Prescott BtPONTEFRACT 14:30	PONTEFRACT	14:30 Malcolm Prescott 80th Birthday Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)	1/3	2/13	+0.15
2026-07-24		ALPHONSUS LIGUORIJ: Dylan Browne McMonagleT: Joseph Patrick O'BrienCORK 19:43	CORK	19:43 Buy Tickets Online At www.corkracecourse.ie Median Auction Race	1/5	1/20	+0.05
2026-07-23		ALPHAJ: Ryan MooreT: Aidan O'BrienLEOPARDSTOWN 18:08	LEOPARDSTOWN	18:08 Saudi Cup Silver Flash Stakes (Group 3)	1/6	1/6	+0.17
2026-07-22		ASUKAJ: Billy LoughnaneT: George Boughey⚑ Eye catcherLINGFIELD PARK 19:40	LINGFIELD PARK	19:40 Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/3	1/50	+0.02
2026-07-22		STAR VELOCITYJ: Rossa RyanT: Ralph BeckettLEICESTER 18:20	LEICESTER	18:20 British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/4	1/10	+0.10
2026-07-16		MY MATE ROGERJ: David EganT: Tom CloverHAMILTON PARK 14:50	HAMILTON PARK	14:50 Alex McWilliams Memorial Celebrations Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)	1/6	2/13	+0.15
2026-07-15		BRUNHILDEJ: Billy LoughnaneT: George Boughey⚑ Eye catcherLINGFIELD PARK 17:50	LINGFIELD PARK	17:50 Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)	1/4	1/7	+0.14
2026-07-14		CELTIC MOTIFJ: Oisin MurphyT: Joseph Patrick O'BrienKILLARNEY 17:09	KILLARNEY	17:09 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden	1/5	1/5	+0.20
2026-07-14		FAST TRACKJ: P. J. McDonaldT: Andrew Balding⚑ Slow startBEVERLEY 14:17	BEVERLEY	14:17 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/4	1/10	+0.10
2026-07-11		AL HAARITHJ: Dylan Browne McMonagleT: Joseph Patrick O'BrienLIMERICK 19:00	LIMERICK	19:00 Heating Engineer Supplies Maiden	1/6	1/8	+0.13
2026-07-06		ROXELINAJ: David EganT: Kevin Philippart de FoyWOLVERHAMPTON 19:00	WOLVERHAMPTON	19:00 Free Bets On attheraces.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/7	2/9	+0.22
2026-07-02		MUSICAL TIMESJ: William BuickT: Charlie ApplebyYARMOUTH 15:40	YARMOUTH	15:40 Weatherbys Racing Bank Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/5	1/5	+0.20
2026-07-02		NABATIJ: William BuickT: Charlie ApplebyYARMOUTH 15:09	YARMOUTH	15:09 Weatherbys EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)	1/4	2/9	+0.22
2026-07-01		ARAPAHO GOLDJ: Connor BeasleyT: Michael DodsTHIRSK 13:38	THIRSK	13:38 British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/10	2/9	+0.22
2026-06-27		DIVINE WHISPERJ: Billy LoughnaneT: George BougheyWINDSOR 17:45	WINDSOR	17:45 Sporting Times Sri Lanka Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/8	2/9	+0.22
2026-06-26		REGIONAL ROCKJ: Edward GreatrexT: Ralph BeckettDONCASTER 10:45	DONCASTER	10:45 Talasey Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	2/8	2/9	-1.00
2026-06-25		PENTONVILLEJ: Billy LoughnaneT: George BougheyLEICESTER 20:45	LEICESTER	20:45 Dr T B Connors Memorial Handicap	2/2	1/9	-1.00
2026-06-21		LUCKY SEVENSJ: Billy LoughnaneT: James OwenBRIGHTON 15:26	BRIGHTON	15:26 Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap	1/4	2/9	+0.22
2026-06-21		LOMAN LADYJ: Harry SkeltonT: Dan SkeltonHEXHAM 14:43	HEXHAM	14:43 Chris Lowther & Brian Ellison 28 Years Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)	6/10	2/9	-1.00
2026-06-20		AL HUDAIBAJ: Zac LloydT: Charlie ApplebyNEWMARKET 14:00	NEWMARKET	14:00 JCB British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)	1/5	2/9	+0.22
2026-06-12		BEORMAJ: Harry SkeltonT: Dan SkeltonNEWTON ABBOT 20:10	NEWTON ABBOT	20:10 Sun Racing The Favourite Pullout Every Day Handicap Chase (GBB Race)	1/2	1/6	+0.17
2026-06-12		TRUSTYOURINSTINCTJ: Dylan Browne McMonagleT: Joseph Patrick O'BrienGOWRAN PARK 19:43	GOWRAN PARK	19:43 Packages At www.gowranpark.ie Race	1/4	1/12	+0.08
2026-06-10		GLORY OF THE SEASJ: Ray DawsonT: Roger VarianHAMILTON PARK 19:30	HAMILTON PARK	19:30 Robert Graham Millar Memorial Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)	1/5	1/5	+0.20
2026-06-10		RES IPSAJ: Colin KeaneT: G. M. LyonsLIMERICK 17:50	LIMERICK	17:50 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden	1/13	1/5	+0.20