Proven winners at the foot of a handicap

Hard front-end race on soft ground

Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.

With it254 bets · 8.3% won · 0.85 v market · -36.5% at SP · -22.7% at Betfair SP

Without8,853 bets · 10.5% won · 1.00 v market · -18.7% at SP · 1.5% at Betfair SP

Failed comeback after a year off

Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.

With it10 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP

Without9,097 bets · 10.4% won · 1.00 v market · -19.1% at SP · 0.9% at Betfair SP

Flattered closer

Held up last time in a race that fell apart for the front-runners, and finished in the first 40% without winning. The leaders came back to it; the close finish was not earned.

With it153 bets · 7.2% won · 0.72 v market · -47.2% at SP · -37.7% at Betfair SP

Without8,954 bets · 10.5% won · 1.00 v market · -18.8% at SP · 1.5% at Betfair SP

Repeat slow startscontextual

Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.

With it171 bets · 8.2% won · 1.06 v market · -11.8% at SP · 14.2% at Betfair SP

Without8,936 bets · 10.5% won · 1.00 v market · -19.4% at SP · 0.6% at Betfair SP

Eye-catcher last timecontextual

Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.

With it796 bets · 13.6% won · 1.11 v market · -7.4% at SP · 11.9% at Betfair SP

Without8,311 bets · 10.1% won · 0.98 v market · -20.4% at SP · -0.2% at Betfair SP