FR1: old first run back

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   FR1: old first run back KILLED red

   because Aged 10+, a chase, 150+ days off. Two-sided.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.99 on 331 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.72. info

   Betfair SP return -13.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.72 to 1.03. Zone: all. On FR1: old first run back

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2861.03

   Later half450.72

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   FR1: old first run back Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 331 bets