Threads · pace · FREERUN-raced-too-freely
FREERUN: raced too freely, blew up
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Designed
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: stopped at check 1: race comments say keen on 2.8% of F1 runs against 3.1% of all finishers; absolute early speed measures the pace of the race, not the horse. Holdout not spent.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
FREERUN: raced too freely, blew up KILLED
because Horses that go off too hot and blow up late, but otherwise jump well, are underrated next time: the cause was keenness, which may not recur and which the form figures cannot see.
made by import
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
FREERUN: raced too freely, blew up Designed → KILLEDimport: stopped at check 1: race comments say keen on 2.8% of F1 runs against 3.1% of all finishers; absolute early speed measures the pace of the race, not the horse. Holdout not spent.
Where it started
Horses that go off too hot and blow up late, but otherwise jump well, are underrated next time: the cause was keenness, which may not recur and which the form figures cannot see.