Threads · yard-planned-move · H-1fa6b9d5

Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Shadow
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 17 Oct, 05:01

Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run SHADOW green
To answer: Is the yard's handicap-debut edge biggest when the horse's last non-handicap run was a heavy beating, the kind of run a yard uses to get a workable mark?
because Yards that are good at handicap debuts often run their horses in maidens and novices over the wrong trip, on the wrong ground or with little asked, so the handicapper sets a lenient mark. The last run before the debut is often a heavy beating that the yard meant to happen. That kind of defeat says nothing about the horse's real ability, and the yard's record shows the plan works.
and the market misses it because On the debut the form book shows a horse beaten 15+ lengths last time, so the public sees an outclassed horse. The yard's record at handicap debuts is not printed on the racecard and only shows up when you add up years of runs. The story thread found that an unchanged mark after a heavy beating gives a lift (O-388a8a14). This is the planned version of that same misreading.
predicting positive, A/E 1.15 to 1.30 on 200+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.05 on 150+ bets, or the same yard's handicap debutants with a close last run (beaten under 5 lengths) score as high or higher
```
is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND last_is_handicap = 0 AND tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND last_field_size >= 4 AND last_position * 2 > last_field_size
```
made by scout
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
broad rule (niche): A/E 1.31 on 346 bets, p = 0.093 (95%: 0.87 to 1.90), by period 1.51 · 1.03. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +67.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.48). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271961.51
after 2026-04-271501.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Observed17 Oct, 05:00
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) passed discovery as a niche: A/E 1.31 on 346 bets (p 0.093), same-race control 0.99.
result0.50waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: 14/1 or shorter (edge should not rest on a few big-priced winners): A/E 1.29 on 146 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.81 to 1.95), by period 1.47 · 1.02. info
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +44.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.45). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27921.47
after 2026-04-27541.02
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: Dose-response: last run in the bottom quarter of the field (a heavier, more 'planned' beating): A/E 0.99 on 192 bets, p = 0.55 (95%: 0.49 to 1.77), by period 1.11 · 0.84. info
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return -14.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.11. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271031.11
after 2026-04-27890.84
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: Yard also in form over the last 30 days (family finding: 30-day form sharpens handicap debuts): A/E 1.54 on 169 bets, p = 0.047 (95%: 0.93 to 2.41), by period 1.62 · 1.42. info
Same-race control 0.97. Betfair SP return +101.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.20). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27961.62
after 2026-04-27731.42
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
control: Two comparisons. (1) The lab's standard same-race control: the other runners in these handicaps should score ab: A/E 1.16 on 99 bets, p = 0.34 (95%: 0.60 to 2.02), by period 0.87 · 1.52. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -14.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.52. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27590.87
after 2026-04-27401.52
Promoted17 Oct, 05:00
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Discovery → PROMISINGniche: thin but right way, A/E 1.315 on 346 bets (p 0.093), control 0.99
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
perturbation: Yard bar tightened: 25+ debut runs, wins >= 1.5x expected: A/E 1.58 on 193 bets, p = 0.060 (95%: 0.88 to 2.61), by period 1.61 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +83.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271031.61
after 2026-04-27901.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
perturbation: Ugly-run cut loosened: last run in the bottom 60% of the field: A/E 1.36 on 418 bets, p = 0.040 (95%: 0.96 to 1.87), by period 1.44 · 1.23. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +52.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.21). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-272481.44
after 2026-04-271701.23
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
control: Control: same yards, debutants that were 2nd or 3rd last time: A/E 1.16 on 99 bets, p = 0.34 (95%: 0.60 to 2.02), by period 0.87 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -14.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.52. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27590.87
after 2026-04-27401.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Observed17 Oct, 05:01
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) survived falsification: 5 of 5 attacks left it standing; it is frozen for its one vault query.
result0.55waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
control: Control: ugly-run handicap debutants from yards NOT good at debuts: A/E 1.12 on 1,343 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.91 to 1.36), by period 1.16 · 1.07. pass
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return +2.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-276231.16
after 2026-04-277201.07
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
partition: Partition: debut in a field of 8+ runners: A/E 1.38 on 286 bets, p = 0.098 (95%: 0.84 to 2.13), by period 1.88 · 0.67. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +80.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.67 to 1.88. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271611.88
after 2026-04-271250.67
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted17 Oct, 05:01
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Falsification → FROZENsurvived falsification
Observed17 Oct, 05:01
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) met the sealed vault supportive: A/E 1.21 on 1765 bets (p 0.012, threshold 0.0018).
result0.55waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
vault query (supportive): A/E 1.21 on 1,765 bets, p = 0.012 (95%: 1.02 to 1.41), by period 1.30 · 1.16. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.14). Zone: vault. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226221.30
2023 to Sept 20251,1431.16
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted17 Oct, 05:01
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Vault → SHADOWvault SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.208 on 1765 bets, p 0.01205 against BH threshold 0.001818 over 55 vault tests
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.05, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 20 -> 16 (-20%): A/E 1.38 on 387 bets, p = 0.048 (95%: 0.94 to 1.95), by period 1.59 · 1.07. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +70.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.52). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-272201.59
after 2026-04-271671.07
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 20 -> 24 (+20%): A/E 1.40 on 315 bets, p = 0.058 (95%: 0.92 to 2.03), by period 1.54 · 1.18. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +81.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.36). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271821.54
after 2026-04-271331.18
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 1.3 -> 1.04 (-20%): A/E 1.00 on 1,023 bets, p = 0.52 (95%: 0.80 to 1.24), by period 1.06 · 0.94. fail
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return +34.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.06. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-275011.06
after 2026-04-275220.94
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 1.3 -> 1.56 (+20%): A/E 1.75 on 198 bets, p = 0.021 (95%: 1.02 to 2.80), by period 1.87 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.97. Betfair SP return +90.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.35). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271061.87
after 2026-04-27921.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 4 -> 3 (-20%): A/E 1.34 on 349 bets, p = 0.075 (95%: 0.90 to 1.93), by period 1.55 · 1.03. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +67.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.52). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271981.55
after 2026-04-271511.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 4 -> 5 (+20%): A/E 1.36 on 336 bets, p = 0.067 (95%: 0.91 to 1.97), by period 1.55 · 1.09. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +72.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.46). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271901.55
after 2026-04-271461.09
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.

Where it started

Yards that are good at handicap debuts often run their horses in maidens and novices over the wrong trip, on the wrong ground or with little asked, so the handicapper sets a lenient mark. The last run before the debut is often a heavy beating that the yard meant to happen. That kind of defeat says nothing about the horse's real ability, and the yard's record shows the plan works.

Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Shadow

Open questions

Last activity

17 Oct, 05:01

Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)

The notebook

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run SHADOW green
To answer: Is the yard's handicap-debut edge biggest when the horse's last non-handicap run was a heavy beating, the kind of run a yard uses to get a workable mark?
because Yards that are good at handicap debuts often run their horses in maidens and novices over the wrong trip, on the wrong ground or with little asked, so the handicapper sets a lenient mark. The last run before the debut is often a heavy beating that the yard meant to happen. That kind of defeat says nothing about the horse's real ability, and the yard's record shows the plan works.
and the market misses it because On the debut the form book shows a horse beaten 15+ lengths last time, so the public sees an outclassed horse. The yard's record at handicap debuts is not printed on the racecard and only shows up when you add up years of runs. The story thread found that an unchanged mark after a heavy beating gives a lift (O-388a8a14). This is the planned version of that same misreading.
predicting positive, A/E 1.15 to 1.30 on 200+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.05 on 150+ bets, or the same yard's handicap debutants with a close last run (beaten under 5 lengths) score as high or higher
```
is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND last_is_handicap = 0 AND tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND last_field_size >= 4 AND last_position * 2 > last_field_size
```
made by scout
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
broad rule (niche): A/E 1.31 on 346 bets, p = 0.093 (95%: 0.87 to 1.90), by period 1.51 · 1.03. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +67.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.48). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271961.51
after 2026-04-271501.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Observed17 Oct, 05:00
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) passed discovery as a niche: A/E 1.31 on 346 bets (p 0.093), same-race control 0.99.
result0.50waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: 14/1 or shorter (edge should not rest on a few big-priced winners): A/E 1.29 on 146 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.81 to 1.95), by period 1.47 · 1.02. info
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +44.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.45). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27921.47
after 2026-04-27541.02
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: Dose-response: last run in the bottom quarter of the field (a heavier, more 'planned' beating): A/E 0.99 on 192 bets, p = 0.55 (95%: 0.49 to 1.77), by period 1.11 · 0.84. info
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return -14.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.11. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271031.11
after 2026-04-27890.84
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
refinement: Yard also in form over the last 30 days (family finding: 30-day form sharpens handicap debuts): A/E 1.54 on 169 bets, p = 0.047 (95%: 0.93 to 2.41), by period 1.62 · 1.42. info
Same-race control 0.97. Betfair SP return +101.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.20). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27961.62
after 2026-04-27731.42
Tested17 Oct, 05:00
control: Two comparisons. (1) The lab's standard same-race control: the other runners in these handicaps should score ab: A/E 1.16 on 99 bets, p = 0.34 (95%: 0.60 to 2.02), by period 0.87 · 1.52. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -14.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.52. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27590.87
after 2026-04-27401.52
Promoted17 Oct, 05:00
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Discovery → PROMISINGniche: thin but right way, A/E 1.315 on 346 bets (p 0.093), control 0.99
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
perturbation: Yard bar tightened: 25+ debut runs, wins >= 1.5x expected: A/E 1.58 on 193 bets, p = 0.060 (95%: 0.88 to 2.61), by period 1.61 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +83.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271031.61
after 2026-04-27901.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
perturbation: Ugly-run cut loosened: last run in the bottom 60% of the field: A/E 1.36 on 418 bets, p = 0.040 (95%: 0.96 to 1.87), by period 1.44 · 1.23. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +52.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.21). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-272481.44
after 2026-04-271701.23
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
control: Control: same yards, debutants that were 2nd or 3rd last time: A/E 1.16 on 99 bets, p = 0.34 (95%: 0.60 to 2.02), by period 0.87 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -14.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.52. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-27590.87
after 2026-04-27401.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Observed17 Oct, 05:01
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) survived falsification: 5 of 5 attacks left it standing; it is frozen for its one vault query.
result0.55waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
control: Control: ugly-run handicap debutants from yards NOT good at debuts: A/E 1.12 on 1,343 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.91 to 1.36), by period 1.16 · 1.07. pass
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return +2.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-276231.16
after 2026-04-277201.07
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
partition: Partition: debut in a field of 8+ runners: A/E 1.38 on 286 bets, p = 0.098 (95%: 0.84 to 2.13), by period 1.88 · 0.67. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +80.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.67 to 1.88. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271611.88
after 2026-04-271250.67
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted17 Oct, 05:01
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Falsification → FROZENsurvived falsification
Observed17 Oct, 05:01
H-1fa6b9d5 (Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark) met the sealed vault supportive: A/E 1.21 on 1765 bets (p 0.012, threshold 0.0018).
result0.55waiting for a reasoning passfrom H-1fa6b9d5
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
vault query (supportive): A/E 1.21 on 1,765 bets, p = 0.012 (95%: 1.02 to 1.41), by period 1.30 · 1.16. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.14). Zone: vault. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226221.30
2023 to Sept 20251,1431.16
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted17 Oct, 05:01
Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run Vault → SHADOWvault SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.208 on 1765 bets, p 0.01205 against BH threshold 0.001818 over 55 vault tests
Tested17 Oct, 05:01
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.05, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 20 -> 16 (-20%): A/E 1.38 on 387 bets, p = 0.048 (95%: 0.94 to 1.95), by period 1.59 · 1.07. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +70.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.52). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-272201.59
after 2026-04-271671.07
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 20 -> 24 (+20%): A/E 1.40 on 315 bets, p = 0.058 (95%: 0.92 to 2.03), by period 1.54 · 1.18. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +81.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.36). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271821.54
after 2026-04-271331.18
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 1.3 -> 1.04 (-20%): A/E 1.00 on 1,023 bets, p = 0.52 (95%: 0.80 to 1.24), by period 1.06 · 0.94. fail
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return +34.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.06. Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-275011.06
after 2026-04-275220.94
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 1.3 -> 1.56 (+20%): A/E 1.75 on 198 bets, p = 0.021 (95%: 1.02 to 2.80), by period 1.87 · 1.52. pass
Same-race control 0.97. Betfair SP return +90.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.35). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271061.87
after 2026-04-27921.52
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 4 -> 3 (-20%): A/E 1.34 on 349 bets, p = 0.075 (95%: 0.90 to 1.93), by period 1.55 · 1.03. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +67.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.52). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271981.55
after 2026-04-271511.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested17 Oct, 05:05
neighbour: >= 4 -> 5 (+20%): A/E 1.36 on 336 bets, p = 0.067 (95%: 0.91 to 1.97), by period 1.55 · 1.09. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +72.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.46). Zone: discovery. On Handicap debut from a yard good at handicap debuts, after an ugly mark-qualifying run
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271901.55
after 2026-04-271461.09
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.