Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-22ef2116
Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
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- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 23:51
Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:22
Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten SHADOW amber
because When a race's pace collapses (last_race_tilt >= 0.2, where closers were favoured), the front-runners are physically exhausted by the early speed and drop back whatever their ability. This is the mirror image of the flattered closer, which is already a strong negative (0.76 at its best). If the hold-up horses that finished close were flattered, the leaders who weakened were understated.
last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1 AND last_field_size >= 8made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:23
broad rule (niche): A/E 1.07 on 2,674 bets, p = 0.12 (95%: 0.96 to 1.20), by period 1.19 · 0.99. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -1.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.19. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,1181.19after 2026-04-271,5560.99Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:23
refinement: Not up in trip today (stamina doubt not being asked again): A/E 1.10 on 1,555 bets, p = 0.10 (95%: 0.95 to 1.27), by period 1.24 · 1.00. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +3.4%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.24. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-276411.24after 2026-04-279141.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:23
refinement: Looked ugly: beaten 3 lengths or more (the result the form book misreads): A/E 1.06 on 2,042 bets, p = 0.20 (95%: 0.92 to 1.22), by period 1.15 · 1.00. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -0.3%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.15. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-278631.15after 2026-04-271,1791.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:23
refinement: 14/1 or shorter, because edges die at big prices: A/E 1.07 on 1,856 bets, p = 0.13 (95%: 0.95 to 1.20), by period 1.17 · 1.00. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -1.1%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.17. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-277911.17after 2026-04-271,0651.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:23
control: Same-race other runners should sit at the usual RaceiQ control level (about 1.03 to 1.05); the rule must clear : A/E 0.97 on 5,911 bets, p = 0.79 (95%: 0.89 to 1.05), by period 0.93 · 0.99. info
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return -7.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-272,3450.93after 2026-04-273,5660.99Promoted15 Oct, 23:23
Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten Discovery → PROMISINGniche: thin but right way, A/E 1.072 on 2674 bets (p 0.118), control 0.991
Tested15 Oct, 23:24
perturbation: Stronger collapse: tilt threshold raised 25% to 0.25: A/E 1.09 on 1,935 bets, p = 0.11 (95%: 0.95 to 1.24), by period 1.20 · 1.01. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -5.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.19). Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-277961.20after 2026-04-271,1391.01Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:24
perturbation: Milder collapse: tilt threshold lowered 20% to 0.16: A/E 1.08 on 3,360 bets, p = 0.080 (95%: 0.97 to 1.19), by period 1.15 · 1.02. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +1.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,4171.15after 2026-04-271,9431.02Tested15 Oct, 23:24
perturbation: Bigger fields only (10+) to dilute the horse's own effect on the tilt: A/E 1.11 on 1,684 bets, p = 0.085 (95%: 0.96 to 1.27), by period 1.27 · 1.00. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +9.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.27. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-276741.27after 2026-04-271,0101.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:24
partition: Leaders only: the horses that set or chased the strongest pace: A/E 1.04 on 583 bets, p = 0.39 (95%: 0.80 to 1.33), by period 1.06 · 1.02. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -20.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-272741.06after 2026-04-273091.02Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:24
partition: 7/1 or shorter: remove the 16/1+ tail and the 31 odds-on bets that may carry the result: A/E 1.08 on 1,100 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.94 to 1.23), by period 1.23 · 0.97. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +4.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.23. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-274651.23after 2026-04-276350.97Tested15 Oct, 23:24
partition: Handicaps only, where the form book's beaten distance sets the price: A/E 1.05 on 2,145 bets, p = 0.24 (95%: 0.92 to 1.19), by period 1.16 · 0.96. pass
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return -0.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.16. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-279301.16after 2026-04-271,2150.96Tested15 Oct, 23:24
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 150, 'min_ae': 1.03, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
Promoted15 Oct, 23:24
Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten Falsification → FROZENsurvived falsification
Promoted15 Oct, 23:24
Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten Frozen → SHADOWvault skipped: last_run_style, last_race_tilt do not exist before the discovery zone; track it forward instead
Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: >= 0.2 -> 0.16 (-20%): A/E 1.08 on 3,360 bets, p = 0.080 (95%: 0.97 to 1.19), by period 1.15 · 1.02. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +1.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,4171.15after 2026-04-271,9431.02Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: >= 0.2 -> 0.24 (+20%): A/E 1.07 on 2,042 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.94 to 1.22), by period 1.19 · 0.99. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -4.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.19. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-278421.19after 2026-04-271,2000.99Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: > 1 -> 0 (-20%): A/E 1.06 on 3,037 bets, p = 0.14 (95%: 0.95 to 1.17), by period 1.16 · 0.98. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -2.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.16. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,2871.16after 2026-04-271,7500.98Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: > 1 -> 2 (+20%): A/E 1.11 on 2,308 bets, p = 0.054 (95%: 0.98 to 1.26), by period 1.22 · 1.04. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +1.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.18). Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-279581.22after 2026-04-271,3501.04Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: >= 8 -> 6 (-20%): A/E 1.07 on 2,674 bets, p = 0.12 (95%: 0.96 to 1.20), by period 1.19 · 0.99. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return -1.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.19. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,1181.19after 2026-04-271,5560.99Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 11:02
neighbour: >= 8 -> 10 (+20%): A/E 1.11 on 1,684 bets, p = 0.085 (95%: 0.96 to 1.27), by period 1.27 · 1.00. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +9.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.27. Zone: discovery. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-276741.27after 2026-04-271,0101.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested16 Oct, 23:51
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 150, 'min_ae': 1.03, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On Pace victim: led or raced prominently in a race that collapsed, beaten
Where it started
When a race's pace collapses (last_race_tilt >= 0.2, where closers were favoured), the front-runners are physically exhausted by the early speed and drop back whatever their ability. This is the mirror image of the flattered closer, which is already a strong negative (0.76 at its best). If the hold-up horses that finished close were flattered, the leaders who weakened were understated.