Threads · yard-planned-move · H-348bbae0

Fresh from a yard good with returners, when the last run before the break was ugly

Hypotheses: 2 (1 alive)
Depth: 1
Best rung: Shadow
Open questions: 2
Last activity: 17 Oct, 05:13

Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Fresh from a yard good with returners, when the last run before the break was ugly KILLED negative
To answer: Does a yard's good record with fresh horses pay most when the break followed a bad run (pulled up, or beaten 20+ lengths), i.e. when the break was a repair?
because A heavy beating or pull-up followed by a 90+ day break usually means something physical: a breathing problem, sore shins or a muscle issue that was then treated. Yards with a strong fresh record are good at bringing a horse back ready after time off. The old problem is gone, but the bad run still sits on top of the form.
and the market misses it because Punters and the odds compilers weight the last visible run. A PU or a 20-length beating followed by a long absence reads as a horse with a problem, so its price drifts. The lab's rule is to forgive what was ugly and physical. The yard's fresh record, which shows it fixes horses, is not on the card.
predicting positive, A/E 1.12 to 1.30 on 250+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.03 on 200+ bets, or the same yard's fresh runners with a good last run score as high or higher (which would mean the bad last run adds nothing)

Where it started

A heavy beating or pull-up followed by a 90+ day break usually means something physical: a breathing problem, sore shins or a muscle issue that was then treated. Yards with a strong fresh record are good at bringing a horse back ready after time off. The old problem is gone, but the bad run still sits on top of the form.

Fresh from a yard good with returners, when the last run before the break was ugly

Hypotheses

2 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Shadow

Open questions

Last activity

17 Oct, 05:13

Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)

The notebook

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Fresh from a yard good with returners, when the last run before the break was ugly KILLED negative
To answer: Does a yard's good record with fresh horses pay most when the break followed a bad run (pulled up, or beaten 20+ lengths), i.e. when the break was a repair?
because A heavy beating or pull-up followed by a 90+ day break usually means something physical: a breathing problem, sore shins or a muscle issue that was then treated. Yards with a strong fresh record are good at bringing a horse back ready after time off. The old problem is gone, but the bad run still sits on top of the form.
and the market misses it because Punters and the odds compilers weight the last visible run. A PU or a 20-length beating followed by a long absence reads as a horse with a problem, so its price drifts. The lab's rule is to forgive what was ugly and physical. The yard's fresh record, which shows it fixes horses, is not on the card.
predicting positive, A/E 1.12 to 1.30 on 250+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.03 on 200+ bets, or the same yard's fresh runners with a good last run score as high or higher (which would mean the bad last run adds nothing)