Threads · yard-planned-move · H-432686d7

Negative: short-priced planned moves from yards proven poor at that move

Hypotheses: 2 (0 alive)
Depth: 1
Best rung: Vault
Open questions: 1
Last activity: 17 Oct, 05:13

Where it stands: No. Pooled across all planned moves, short-priced runners from yards with a poor record at the move are not over-bet out of sample: A/E 1.02 on 1804 vault bets (p 0.66), so the 0.80 on 413 in discovery did not hold.

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Negative: short-priced planned moves from yards proven poor at that move KILLED red
To answer: Are short-priced chase debutants and handicap debutants from yards with a long, poor record at that move over-bet?
because Some yards repeatedly fail at a particular move: their chasers jump poorly first time, or their horses go into handicaps with marks that are too high. The cause is how the yard schools and places horses, and it persists from season to season.
and the market misses it because A short price on a debut rests on hurdle or maiden form and the yard's overall profile. The yard's specific failure rate at that move is hidden inside its general strike rate, so the market prices the horse's form and not the yard's weakness. Pretty, visible form gets trusted.
predicting negative, A/E 0.80 to 0.92 on 300+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E at or above 0.98 on 250+ bets
```
sp_decimal <= 6 AND ((tx_chase_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_chase_debut_wins <= 0.7 * tx_chase_debut_exp) OR (tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 25 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins <= 0.7 * tx_hcap_debut_exp))
```

Where it started

Some yards repeatedly fail at a particular move: their chasers jump poorly first time, or their horses go into handicaps with marks that are too high. The cause is how the yard schools and places horses, and it persists from season to season.

Negative: short-priced planned moves from yards proven poor at that move

Hypotheses

2 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Vault

Open questions

Last activity

17 Oct, 05:13

The notebook

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Negative: short-priced planned moves from yards proven poor at that move KILLED red
To answer: Are short-priced chase debutants and handicap debutants from yards with a long, poor record at that move over-bet?
because Some yards repeatedly fail at a particular move: their chasers jump poorly first time, or their horses go into handicaps with marks that are too high. The cause is how the yard schools and places horses, and it persists from season to season.
and the market misses it because A short price on a debut rests on hurdle or maiden form and the yard's overall profile. The yard's specific failure rate at that move is hidden inside its general strike rate, so the market prices the horse's form and not the yard's weakness. Pretty, visible form gets trusted.
predicting negative, A/E 0.80 to 0.92 on 300+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E at or above 0.98 on 250+ bets
```
sp_decimal <= 6 AND ((tx_chase_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_chase_debut_wins <= 0.7 * tx_chase_debut_exp) OR (tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 25 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins <= 0.7 * tx_hcap_debut_exp))
```