Threads · yard-planned-move · H-53ab001f

Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainer

Hypotheses: 3 (0 alive)
Depth: 2
Best rung: Vault
Open questions: 3
Last activity: 17 Oct, 05:14

Where it stands: No. The strong-yard subset (0.81 on 84) is nested inside the general rule, and the vault puts the general rule at 1.02 on 1793. Nothing is left to support a strong-yard-specific over-betting effect.

The tree

KILLEDA/E 0.93 · 422Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainerscoutredreached discovery
- KILLEDA/E 0.81 · 84Negative: short-priced recruits to a strong new yard after a heavy beating are over-bet on the yard's namerival-explanationredreached discovery
  - KILLEDA/E 0.81 · 400Negative: short-priced new-yard runners after a heavy beating are over-bet, whatever the yard's recordgeneralisenegativereached vault

Still open

Is the GB/IRE split in new-yard recruits (GB 0.81 on 316, IRE 1.35 on 106) real, perhaps because Irish moves tend to come from point-to-points or big dispersals, or is it noise? open
Across all new-yard recruits, not just those after a beating, does the GB/IRE split (GB below 1, IRE above 1) persist? open
Is the dip of short-priced (sp_decimal <= 8) yard-move runners below 1.0 in the discovery window a recent shift in the market rather than noise, given that vault periods score about 1.02? open

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainer KILLED red
To answer: Is the yard's new-recruit edge concentrated in horses whose last run for their old trainer was a heavy beating?
because Owners move horses after bad runs. A yard with a proven record of improving recruits brings a new routine, a new vet, new tack and a trip or ground better suited to the horse. That fixes what went wrong under the old trainer, and the heavy beating shows how much there was to fix.
and the market misses it because The form line shows a 15+ length beating, and the public reads it as declining ability. The trainer change is visible, but the market prices a generic switch. The receiving yard's specific record with recruits is not on the card, and the ugly run puts people off.
predicting positive, A/E 1.12 to 1.25 on 200+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.03 on 150+ bets, or recruits to the same yards with a close last run score as high or higher
```
trainer_id <> last_trainer_id AND tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND last_field_size >= 6 AND last_position >= 0.6 * last_field_size
```

Where it started

Owners move horses after bad runs. A yard with a proven record of improving recruits brings a new routine, a new vet, new tack and a trip or ground better suited to the horse. That fixes what went wrong under the old trainer, and the heavy beating shows how much there was to fix.

Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainer

Hypotheses

3 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Vault

Open questions

Last activity

17 Oct, 05:14

The tree

KILLEDA/E 0.93 · 422Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainerscoutredreached discovery
- KILLEDA/E 0.81 · 84Negative: short-priced recruits to a strong new yard after a heavy beating are over-bet on the yard's namerival-explanationredreached discovery
  - KILLEDA/E 0.81 · 400Negative: short-priced new-yard runners after a heavy beating are over-bet, whatever the yard's recordgeneralisenegativereached vault

Still open

Is the GB/IRE split in new-yard recruits (GB 0.81 on 316, IRE 1.35 on 106) real, perhaps because Irish moves tend to come from point-to-points or big dispersals, or is it noise? open
Across all new-yard recruits, not just those after a beating, does the GB/IRE split (GB below 1, IRE above 1) persist? open
Is the dip of short-priced (sp_decimal <= 8) yard-move runners below 1.0 in the discovery window a recent shift in the market rather than noise, given that vault periods score about 1.02? open

The notebook

Hypothesised17 Oct, 04:56
Recruit to a yard good with new arrivals, after a heavy beating for its old trainer KILLED red
To answer: Is the yard's new-recruit edge concentrated in horses whose last run for their old trainer was a heavy beating?
because Owners move horses after bad runs. A yard with a proven record of improving recruits brings a new routine, a new vet, new tack and a trip or ground better suited to the horse. That fixes what went wrong under the old trainer, and the heavy beating shows how much there was to fix.
and the market misses it because The form line shows a 15+ length beating, and the public reads it as declining ability. The trainer change is visible, but the market prices a generic switch. The receiving yard's specific record with recruits is not on the card, and the ugly run puts people off.
predicting positive, A/E 1.12 to 1.25 on 200+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E below 1.03 on 150+ bets, or recruits to the same yards with a close last run score as high or higher
```
trainer_id <> last_trainer_id AND tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND last_field_size >= 6 AND last_position >= 0.6 * last_field_size
```