Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-6d38d88b
Hung or jinked last time on a track going the other way round, today the opposite direction
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:24
Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.942, needs 1.05; p 0.8668, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [0.84, 1.0], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.942 against same-race control 1.01, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.942 below 1.05; p 0.8668323334758147 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 1.01; a period points the other wa
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:22
Hung or jinked last time on a track going the other way round, today the opposite direction KILLED red
because A horse that hangs, lugs or jinks is often reacting to the track's camber and bends, or to discomfort on one lead. When the wayward run came on a left-handed track and today's track goes right (or the other way round), the physical cause is gone and the energy wasted moving sideways comes back.
last_wayward = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND lower(track_direction) IN ('left', 'right') AND lower(last_track_direction) IN ('left', 'right') AND lower(track_direction) != lower(last_track_direction)made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:24
broad rule: A/E 0.94 on 2,692 bets, p = 0.87 (95%: 0.84 to 1.05), by period 0.84 · 1.00. fail
Where it started
A horse that hangs, lugs or jinks is often reacting to the track's camber and bends, or to discomfort on one lead. When the wayward run came on a left-handed track and today's track goes right (or the other way round), the physical cause is gone and the energy wasted moving sideways comes back.