Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-8468890b
Short stride on soft ground last time, back on a sounder surface today
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:29
Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.875, needs 1.05; p 0.9393, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [0.8, 0.98], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.875 against same-race control 1.017, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.875 below 1.05; p 0.9393122723385944 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 1.017; a period points the other
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:27
Short stride on soft ground last time, back on a sounder surface today KILLED negative
because A horse with a long, raking action loses efficiency in soft or heavy ground: its stride shortens as hooves sink and it cannot use its natural gait. A stride length far below its field's, measured on soft ground, is physical evidence that the ground, not ability, caused the defeat. On good or faster ground the stride and the performance come back.
lower(last_going_group) IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND lower(going_group) NOT IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND lower(surface) = 'turf' AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_stride_length_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_stride_length_pct <= 0.2 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_field_size >= 5made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:29
broad rule: A/E 0.88 on 1,596 bets, p = 0.94 (95%: 0.73 to 1.04), by period 0.80 · 0.98.
Where it started
A horse with a long, raking action loses efficiency in soft or heavy ground: its stride shortens as hooves sink and it cannot use its natural gait. A stride length far below its field's, measured on soft ground, is physical evidence that the ground, not ability, caused the defeat. On good or faster ground the stride and the performance come back.