Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-d28065ea
One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
- Hypotheses
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- Best rung
- Falsification
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:27
Where it stands: falsified: IRE A/E 0.961
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:22
One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far KILLED green
because A single bad mistake over jumps takes away speed and momentum that the horse then has to spend energy recovering, which can turn a competitive run into a beating of more than five lengths. RaceiQ's speed-lost figure shows the size of the incident physically. Pairing it with a clean recent jumping record (one error at most in the last three runs) separates a one-off from a habit.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= 4 AND last_field_size >= 6 AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.2 AND s_speed_lost_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_speed_lost_pct_prev >= 0.5made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:25
broad rule (niche): A/E 1.14 on 707 bets, p = 0.16 (95%: 0.88 to 1.44), by period 1.13 · 1.14. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +36.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-274761.13after 2026-04-272311.14Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:25
refinement: 14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.01 on 419 bets, p = 0.48 (95%: 0.76 to 1.32), by period 1.09 · 0.83. info
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return +13.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.09. Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-272841.09after 2026-04-271350.83Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:25
refinement: chases only (a mistake at a fence costs more, as with IQ143): A/E 1.25 on 192 bets, p = 0.17 (95%: 0.79 to 1.87), by period 1.17 · 1.61. info
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +58.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.44). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271471.17after 2026-04-27451.61Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:25
refinement: speed loss confirmed by a poor jump index (the loss came from the jumping, not from tiring): A/E 1.17 on 577 bets, p = 0.13 (95%: 0.89 to 1.52), by period 1.14 · 1.24. info
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +44.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-273941.14after 2026-04-271831.24Tested15 Oct, 23:25
control: Other runners in the same races should come in around the usual RaceiQ control of 1.03 to 1.05. If the rule's r: A/E 1.05 on 3,983 bets, p = 0.18 (95%: 0.95 to 1.16), by period 1.04 · 1.06. info
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return +2.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.02). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-272,5781.04after 2026-04-271,4051.06Promoted15 Oct, 23:25
One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far Discovery → PROMISINGniche: thin but right way, A/E 1.135 on 707 bets (p 0.16), control 0.991
Tested15 Oct, 23:27
perturbation: Tighter incident: speed lost in bottom 15% of the race: A/E 1.18 on 458 bets, p = 0.15 (95%: 0.87 to 1.57), by period 1.20 · 1.13. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +37.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-273091.20after 2026-04-271491.13Tested15 Oct, 23:27
perturbation: Looser thresholds: speed lost bottom 25%, previous run 40th percentile or better: A/E 1.00 on 1,478 bets, p = 0.51 (95%: 0.83 to 1.20), by period 1.05 · 0.89. pass
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return +11.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.05. Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-279921.05after 2026-04-274860.89Tested15 Oct, 23:27
price_band: 14/1 or shorter only (strip out the 16/1+ band): A/E 1.01 on 419 bets, p = 0.48 (95%: 0.76 to 1.32), by period 1.09 · 0.83. pass
Same-race control 1.01. Betfair SP return +13.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.09. Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-272841.09after 2026-04-271350.83Tested15 Oct, 23:27
partition: Speed loss confirmed as a jumping loss by a poor jump index: A/E 1.17 on 577 bets, p = 0.13 (95%: 0.89 to 1.52), by period 1.14 · 1.24. pass
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +44.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-273941.14after 2026-04-271831.24Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:27
control: Control: same incident but a habit (previous run also lost speed): A/E 0.91 on 2,149 bets, p = 0.89 (95%: 0.78 to 1.06), by period 0.91 · 0.91. fail
Same-race control 1.02. Betfair SP return -2.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,4790.91after 2026-04-276700.91Tested15 Oct, 23:27
partition: Beaten far: last run beaten 5 lengths or more: A/E 1.27 on 565 bets, p = 0.039 (95%: 0.97 to 1.63), by period 1.33 · 1.17. pass
Same-race control 0.98. Betfair SP return +57.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.16). Zone: discovery. On One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32025-10-01 to 2026-04-273441.33after 2026-04-272211.17Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:27
One jumping error that showed up as a large speed loss in the sectionals, beaten far Falsification → KILLEDfalsified: IRE A/E 0.961
Where it started
A single bad mistake over jumps takes away speed and momentum that the horse then has to spend energy recovering, which can turn a competitive run into a beating of more than five lengths. RaceiQ's speed-lost figure shows the size of the incident physically. Pairing it with a clean recent jumping record (one error at most in the last three runs) separates a one-off from a habit.