Threads · negative · H-dd2d6d12
Last-time winners that were slow in the race are over-bet at the front of the market
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- 16 Oct, 16:53
Where it stands: H-07082d28 (Winners gifted an uncontested lead are over-bet at the front of the ma) pointed the predicted way but failed the bar: A/E 0.93 on 45 bets (p 0.64), control 1.03.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised16 Oct, 16:45
Last-time winners that were slow in the race are over-bet at the front of the market KILLED red
To answer: Is a last-time win the figures call slow (top speed in the bottom part of its field) over-bet when the horse is in the top three of the betting next time?
because A horse that won while being slower at top speed than most of its field won through the shape of the race: a soft lead, a pace collapse, or rivals who failed to stay. That doesn't happen again on purpose. In a truly run race, a horse with low top speed lacks the engine to repeat. Easy winners showed real quality and beat their prices (O-991dc8ad); this is the opposite case, a win with no physical sign of ability.
and the market misses it because The form book and the result say 'won'. Commentators and the public see a winner and push it into the top three of the betting. The sectional top-speed figure is not in the racecard narrative, so the price follows the visible result and not the figure. This is the lesson 'distrust what was pretty and visible; the figures pay where they disagree with what everyone saw'.
predicting negative, A/E 0.82 to 0.92 on 300+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E 0.97 or higher on 300+ bets, or A/E no lower than the same-race control.
Where it started
A horse that won while being slower at top speed than most of its field won through the shape of the race: a soft lead, a pace collapse, or rivals who failed to stay. That doesn't happen again on purpose. In a truly run race, a horse with low top speed lacks the engine to repeat. Easy winners showed real quality and beat their prices (O-991dc8ad); this is the opposite case, a win with no physical sign of ability.