Threads · revert · H02-back-to-last-winning-trip
H02: back to last winning trip
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.986 on 21602 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H02: back to last winning trip KILLED red
because Beaten last time over a trip 2f+ away from the one it last won at; today back within a furlong of that trip.
abs(distance_yards - last_win_yards) <= 220 AND abs(last_distance_yards - last_win_yards) >= 440 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 21,602 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.98 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -5.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H02: back to last winning trip
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226,8580.992023 to a year ago10,7710.98Last year3,9730.98Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H02: back to last winning trip Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.986 on 21602 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Beaten last time over a trip 2f+ away from the one it last won at; today back within a furlong of that trip.