Threads · letters · H100-refused-or-ran-out
H100: refused or ran out
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.336 on 61 bets (broad AMBER)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H100: refused or ran out KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: refused, ran out or refused to race last time. That one IS the horse's fault.
last_code IN ('REF', 'RO', 'RR')made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.34 on 61 bets. info
Betfair SP return -6.3%. Zone: all. On H100: refused or ran out
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half31–Later half30–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H100: refused or ran out Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.336 on 61 bets (broad AMBER)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: refused, ran out or refused to race last time. That one IS the horse's fault.