H104: yard good at chase debuts

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H104: yard good at chase debuts PROMISING green

   because First run over fences from a yard whose earlier chase debutants beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.15 on 791 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.12 · 1.33. info

   Betfair SP return +42.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.22). Zone: all. On H104: yard good at chase debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222061.11

   2023 to a year ago4171.12

   Last year1681.33

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won over hurdles: A/E 1.10 on 481 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.14 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +19.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.24. Zone: all. On H104: yard good at chase debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221260.98

   2023 to a year ago2671.14

   Last year881.24

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.18 on 487 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.16 · 1.39. info

   Betfair SP return +57.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.32). Zone: all. On H104: yard good at chase debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221361.07

   2023 to a year ago2331.16

   Last year1181.39

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   non-handicap: A/E 1.11 on 304 bets, by period 1.16 · 1.08 · 1.19. info

   Betfair SP return +7.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H104: yard good at chase debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22701.16

   2023 to a year ago1841.08

   Last year501.19

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H104: yard good at chase debuts Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier A: strong candidate; best [handicap] GREEN A/E 1.184 on 487 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts (H104: yard good at chase debuts) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.15 on 791 bets (periods 1.11 / 1.12 / 1.33); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts