H105: yard good at hurdle debuts

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H105: yard good at hurdle debuts KILLED red

   because First run over hurdles from a yard whose earlier hurdle debutants beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_hurdle_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hurdle_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hurdle_debut_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 1,366 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.01 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return -25.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H105: yard good at hurdle debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224611.02

   2023 to a year ago6911.01

   Last year2140.91

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H105: yard good at hurdle debuts Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 1366 bets (broad RED)