H108: yard good with first time headgear

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H108: yard good with first time headgear KILLED red

   because First-time headgear from a yard whose earlier first-time headgear runners beat the market by 30%+ (last year only).

   tx_headgear_first_runs >= 10 AND tx_headgear_first_wins >= 1.3 * tx_headgear_first_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.96 on 906 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return -2.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H108: yard good with first time headgear

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2360.80

   Later half6701.02

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H108: yard good with first time headgear Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.963 on 906 bets (broad RED)