H109: the handicap plot

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H109: the handicap plot PROMISING green

   because Handicap debut after exactly three runs, stepping up 20%+ in trip: three quiet runs over the wrong trip, then the right one.

   is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 4,608 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.02 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return -5.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H109: the handicap plot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,7871.07

   2023 to a year ago2,0951.02

   Last year7261.10

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.02 on 3,613 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.98 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return -8.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H109: the handicap plot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,3571.05

   2023 to a year ago1,6790.98

   Last year5771.11

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.17 on 995 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.23 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return +5.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.16). Zone: all. On H109: the handicap plot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224301.15

   2023 to a year ago4161.23

   Last year1491.07

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   unplaced in all three: A/E 1.07 on 3,129 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.05 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -17.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H109: the handicap plot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2361.12

   2023 to a year ago1,3961.05

   Last year4971.04

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.05 on 2,556 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.03 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return +0.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H109: the handicap plot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229121.08

   2023 to a year ago1,2431.03

   Last year4011.07

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H109: the handicap plot Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.174 on 995 bets (broad RED)

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H109-the-handicap-plot (H109: the handicap plot) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 4608 bets (periods 1.07 / 1.02 / 1.10); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H109-the-handicap-plot