H11: yard good fresh

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H11: yard good fresh PROMISING green

   because First run for 150+ days from a yard whose earlier returners beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 7,573 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.04 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +1.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H11: yard good fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,0041.07

   2023 to a year ago4,1241.04

   Last year1,4451.15

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.07 on 3,290 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.05 · 1.20. info

   Betfair SP return +2.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.18). Zone: all. On H11: yard good fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228911.02

   2023 to a year ago1,7081.05

   Last year6911.20

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   October-November: A/E 1.14 on 1,747 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.12 · 1.31. info

   Betfair SP return +11.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.24). Zone: all. On H11: yard good fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226191.07

   2023 to a year ago7461.12

   Last year3821.31

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat, March-May: A/E 1.07 on 2,486 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.10 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +14.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H11: yard good fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226191.04

   2023 to a year ago1,4111.10

   Last year4561.05

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H11: yard good fresh Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [October-November] GREEN A/E 1.136 on 1747 bets (broad AMBER)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H11-yard-good-fresh (H11: yard good fresh) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.07 on 7573 bets (periods 1.07 / 1.04 / 1.15); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H11-yard-good-fresh