Threads · letters · H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition

H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [less testing ground today] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 5768 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition KILLED amber
because Failed to finish in a jumps race where 40%+ of the field failed to finish: the race beat most of them, not just this one.
```
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 8,790 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.00 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -23.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223,5361.12
2023 to a year ago3,9281.00
Last year1,3261.01
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.03 on 4,437 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.98 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,7301.07
2023 to a year ago2,0060.98
Last year701
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.05 on 6,856 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.99 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return -15.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,7171.11
2023 to a year ago3,0720.99
Last year1,067
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
less testing ground today: A/E 1.07 on 5,768 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.04 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -24.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,2521.14
2023 to a year ago2,5851.04
Last year931
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [less testing ground today] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 5768 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Failed to finish in a jumps race where 40%+ of the field failed to finish: the race beat most of them, not just this one.

H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [less testing ground today] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 5768 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition KILLED amber
because Failed to finish in a jumps race where 40%+ of the field failed to finish: the race beat most of them, not just this one.
```
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 8,790 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.00 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -23.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223,5361.12
2023 to a year ago3,9281.00
Last year1,3261.01
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.03 on 4,437 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.98 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,7301.07
2023 to a year ago2,0060.98
Last year701
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.05 on 6,856 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.99 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return -15.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,7171.11
2023 to a year ago3,0720.99
Last year1,067
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
less testing ground today: A/E 1.07 on 5,768 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.04 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -24.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222,2521.14
2023 to a year ago2,5851.04
Last year931
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [less testing ground today] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 5768 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Failed to finish in a jumps race where 40%+ of the field failed to finish: the race beat most of them, not just this one.