H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form PROMISING green

   because Handicap debut from a yard good at them that is also winning at or above its prices over the last 30 days.

   tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.16 on 1,811 bets, by period 1.27 · 1.02 · 1.52. info

   Betfair SP return +26.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.50). Zone: all. On H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226281.27

   2023 to a year ago9441.02

   Last year2391.52

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.19 on 601 bets, by period 1.22 · 1.11 · 1.37. info

   Betfair SP return +2.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.26). Zone: all. On H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221971.22

   2023 to a year ago2951.11

   Last year1091.37

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.15 on 1,210 bets, by period 1.29 · 0.98 · 1.67. info

   Betfair SP return +46.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.67. Zone: all. On H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224311.29

   2023 to a year ago6490.98

   Last year130

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   priced under 13/2: A/E 1.14 on 586 bets, by period 1.18 · 1.02 · 1.59. info

   Betfair SP return +57.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.57). Zone: all. On H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222071.18

   2023 to a year ago3081.02

   Last year71

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.164 on 1811 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.16 on 1811 bets (periods 1.27 / 1.02 / 1.52); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form