Threads · handicap · H122-much-lighter-than-last-time
H122: much lighter than last time
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.028 on 11612 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H122: much lighter than last time KILLED red
because Carries 10lb or more less than last time in a handicap of the same class or lower: a real drop, not a rise in grade.
is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1 AND weight_lbs <= last_weight_lbs - 10 AND race_class >= last_race_class
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 11,612 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.05 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return +0.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H122: much lighter than last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224,3251.022023 to a year ago5,1361.05Last year2,1510.99Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H122: much lighter than last time Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.028 on 11612 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Carries 10lb or more less than last time in a handicap of the same class or lower: a real drop, not a rise in grade.