H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard KILLED red

   because Jumps handicap debut stepping up in trip, from a yard good at handicap debuts: the plan, from a yard that plans.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 505 bets, by period 1.30 · 0.95 · 0.70. info

   Betfair SP return -18.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.70 to 1.30. Zone: all. On H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221231.30

   2023 to a year ago2710.95

   Last year111

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 505 bets (broad RED)