Threads · trainer-move · H13-yard-good-at-class-drops
H13: yard good at class drops
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 8660 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H13: yard good at class drops KILLED red
because Dropped in class by a yard whose earlier class-droppers beat the market by 30%+.
tx_class_drop_runs >= 20 AND tx_class_drop_wins >= 1.3 * tx_class_drop_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 8,660 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.99 · 1.21. info
Betfair SP return +30.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H13: yard good at class drops
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224,0011.002023 to a year ago3,8110.99Last year8481.21Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H13: yard good at class drops Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 8660 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Dropped in class by a yard whose earlier class-droppers beat the market by 30%+.