Threads · trainer-logistics · H130-yard-at-a-course-it-never-visits
H130: yard at a course it never visits
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.974 on 5993 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H130: yard at a course it never visits KILLED red
because An established yard (600+ runners on record) with at most two earlier runners at this course: an unusual trip is made for a reason.
tc_runs <= 2 AND trainer_runs >= 600
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.97 on 5,993 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.94 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return +7.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H130: yard at a course it never visits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,7931.032023 to a year ago3,1860.94Last year1,0140.95Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H130: yard at a course it never visits Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.974 on 5993 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
An established yard (600+ runners on record) with at most two earlier runners at this course: an unusual trip is made for a reason.