Threads · trainer-logistics · H131-yard-in-a-kind-of-race-it-rarely-contests
H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.006 on 9998 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests KILLED red
because Under 4% of the yard's runners have been in this kind of race (code and handicap or not): a Flat yard's chaser, a jumps yard's Flat maiden. Intent, or out of its depth? The market has no record to go on.
trainer_runs >= 400 AND trainer_kind_runs * 25 <= trainer_runs
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 9,998 bets, by period 1.06 · 0.97 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return +1.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,6911.062023 to a year ago5,0910.97Last year2,216Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.006 on 9998 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Under 4% of the yard's runners have been in this kind of race (code and handicap or not): a Flat yard's chaser, a jumps yard's Flat maiden. Intent, or out of its depth? The market has no record to go on.