H135: recruit to a good yard in form

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H135: recruit to a good yard in form PROMISING amber

   because First run for a new yard that is good with recruits and winning at or above its prices this month.

   tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 1,725 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.12 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return +0.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H135: recruit to a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225161.06

   2023 to a year ago8841.12

   Last year3250.96

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.11 on 1,073 bets, by period 1.20 · 1.11 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +2.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H135: recruit to a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223061.20

   2023 to a year ago5761.11

   Last year1910.92

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.08 on 619 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.17 · 0.99. info

   Betfair SP return +0.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.17. Zone: all. On H135: recruit to a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221940.96

   2023 to a year ago2961.17

   Last year1290.99

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.04 on 1,014 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.06 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -11.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H135: recruit to a good yard in form

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222911.09

   2023 to a year ago5401.06

   Last year1830.88

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H135: recruit to a good yard in form Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1073 bets (broad AMBER)