Threads · trainer-named · H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races

H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [three-year-olds] NEGATIVE A/E 0.73 on 461 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races PROMISING negative
because Aidan O'Brien with two or more in a Group or Listed race, and not the shortest-priced of them. Ballydoyle second strings are run on their merits and the jockey pecking order sets the prices.
```
trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.84 on 711 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.75 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return -45.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222630.83
2023 to a year ago3130.75
Last year135
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Group 1: A/E 0.95 on 268 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.85 · 1.21. info
Betfair SP return -57.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22970.90
2023 to a year ago1130.85
Last year58
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.92 on 336 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.75 · 1.23. info
Betfair SP return +10.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221180.97
2023 to a year ago1520.75
Last year66
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
three-year-olds: A/E 0.73 on 461 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.65 · 0.75. info
Betfair SP return -58.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221790.81
2023 to a year ago1950.65
Last year870.75
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [three-year-olds] NEGATIVE A/E 0.73 on 461 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Aidan O'Brien with two or more in a Group or Listed race, and not the shortest-priced of them. Ballydoyle second strings are run on their merits and the jockey pecking order sets the prices.

H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [three-year-olds] NEGATIVE A/E 0.73 on 461 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races PROMISING negative
because Aidan O'Brien with two or more in a Group or Listed race, and not the shortest-priced of them. Ballydoyle second strings are run on their merits and the jockey pecking order sets the prices.
```
trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.84 on 711 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.75 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return -45.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222630.83
2023 to a year ago3130.75
Last year135
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Group 1: A/E 0.95 on 268 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.85 · 1.21. info
Betfair SP return -57.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22970.90
2023 to a year ago1130.85
Last year58
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.92 on 336 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.75 · 1.23. info
Betfair SP return +10.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221180.97
2023 to a year ago1520.75
Last year66
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
three-year-olds: A/E 0.73 on 461 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.65 · 0.75. info
Betfair SP return -58.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221790.81
2023 to a year ago1950.65
Last year870.75
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [three-year-olds] NEGATIVE A/E 0.73 on 461 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Aidan O'Brien with two or more in a Group or Listed race, and not the shortest-priced of them. Ballydoyle second strings are run on their merits and the jockey pecking order sets the prices.