Threads · trainer-named · H141-henderson-short-prices-in-the-autumn
H141: henderson short prices in the autumn
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 267 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H141: henderson short prices in the autumn KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: Nicky Henderson's jumpers at 4/1 or shorter in October and November. The yard starts late and brings them on for the spring; the name keeps the price short.
trainer LIKE 'Nicky Henderson%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND sp_decimal <= 5made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 267 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return +0.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H141: henderson short prices in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221460.972023 to a year ago881.06Last year33–Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H141: henderson short prices in the autumn Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 267 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: Nicky Henderson's jumpers at 4/1 or shorter in October and November. The yard starts late and brings them on for the spring; the name keeps the price short.