Threads · trainer-named · H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn

H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.958 on 365 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn KILLED red
because Paul Nicholls' jumpers on their first run for 150+ days in October and November: the yard famously has them ready for Chepstow and Wincanton.
```
trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 365 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.82 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return +44.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221571.11
2023 to a year ago1500.82
Last year580.90
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 0.81 on 158 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.66. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22720.95
2023 to a year ago600.66
Last year26–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.95 on 206 bets, by period 1.18 · 0.62. info
Betfair SP return +107.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22871.18
2023 to a year ago840.62
Last year35–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.96 on 334 bets, by period 1.10 · 0.82 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return +78.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221461.10
2023 to a year ago1410.82
Last year47
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.958 on 365 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Paul Nicholls' jumpers on their first run for 150+ days in October and November: the yard famously has them ready for Chepstow and Wincanton.

H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.958 on 365 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn KILLED red
because Paul Nicholls' jumpers on their first run for 150+ days in October and November: the yard famously has them ready for Chepstow and Wincanton.
```
trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 365 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.82 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return +44.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221571.11
2023 to a year ago1500.82
Last year580.90
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 0.81 on 158 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.66. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22720.95
2023 to a year ago600.66
Last year26–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.95 on 206 bets, by period 1.18 · 0.62. info
Betfair SP return +107.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22871.18
2023 to a year ago840.62
Last year35–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.96 on 334 bets, by period 1.10 · 0.82 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return +78.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221461.10
2023 to a year ago1410.82
Last year47
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.958 on 365 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Paul Nicholls' jumpers on their first run for 150+ days in October and November: the yard famously has them ready for Chepstow and Wincanton.