H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants KILLED red

   because Two-year-olds making their debut before July from yards that train them to win first time (Watson, Burke, Fahey, Hannon, Dascombe, Boughey): sharp, forward and drilled.

   age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month <= 6 AND (trainer LIKE 'Archie Watson%' OR trainer LIKE 'K. R. Burke%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Fahey%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Hannon%' OR trainer LIKE 'Tom Dascombe%' OR trainer LIKE 'George Boughey%')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 952 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.01 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return -6.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223550.94

   2023 to a year ago4801.01

   Last year117

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.004 on 952 bets (broad RED)