Threads · trainer-named · H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants
H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [July onwards] RED A/E 0.918 on 567 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: two-year-old debutants at the head of the market from yards that educate first time (Gosden, Varian, Beckett, Haggas, Stoute, Charlton): the price is the pedigree and the name, and the run is a lesson.
age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_rank <= 2 AND (trainer LIKE '%Gosden%' OR trainer LIKE 'Roger Varian%' OR trainer LIKE 'Ralph Beckett%' OR trainer LIKE 'William Haggas%' OR trainer LIKE 'Sir Michael Stoute%' OR trainer LIKE '%Charlton%')
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.89 on 682 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.97 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return +1.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223270.792023 to a year ago2650.97Last year90Tested15 Oct, 23:10
seven furlongs or more: A/E 0.88 on 471 bets, by period 0.75 · 1.04 · 0.84. info
Betfair SP return -16.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222250.752023 to a year ago1781.04Last year68Tested15 Oct, 23:10
July onwards: A/E 0.92 on 567 bets, by period 0.77 · 1.06 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return +0.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222740.772023 to a year ago2131.06Last year80Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [July onwards] RED A/E 0.918 on 567 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: two-year-old debutants at the head of the market from yards that educate first time (Gosden, Varian, Beckett, Haggas, Stoute, Charlton): the price is the pedigree and the name, and the run is a lesson.