H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break KILLED amber

   because Charles Byrnes and Emmet Mullins in handicaps with a horse off 60+ days: both yards win handicaps with horses that have been put away for the day.

   (trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.71 on 257 bets, by period 0.76 · 0.57 · 1.20. info

   Betfair SP return +57.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.57 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22620.76

   2023 to a year ago1430.57

   Last year521.20

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.70 on 164 bets, by period 0.66 · 0.63. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22440.66

   2023 to a year ago910.63

   Last year29–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   in Britain: A/E 1.56 on 23 bets. info

   Zone: all. On H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226–

   2023 to a year ago14–

   Last year3–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.81 on 178 bets, by period 0.62 · 0.70 · 1.60. info

   Betfair SP return +104.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.60. Zone: all. On H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22440.62

   2023 to a year ago940.70

   Last year401.60

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.559 on 23 bets (broad RED)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break (H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.71 on 257 bets (periods 0.76 / 0.57 / 1.20).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break