Threads · age-wfa · H154-three-year-olds-against-elders-over-a-mile-and-a-half-plus
H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 5074 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus KILLED red
because Three-year-olds meeting older horses in Flat handicaps over 12f+: the scale is most generous at long trips and stayers improve fastest at three, so the allowance over-compensates.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,074 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.01 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -0.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,4760.992023 to a year ago1,8241.01Last year774Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 5074 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Three-year-olds meeting older horses in Flat handicaps over 12f+: the scale is most generous at long trips and stayers improve fastest at three, so the allowance over-compensates.