Threads · age-winter · H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three
H158: one run at two returns at three
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [unplaced on debut] RED A/E 1.003 on 1342 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H158: one run at two returns at three KILLED red
because A three-year-old with exactly one run, back after 150+ days in a non-handicap from March to June: the single run at two was an education and the horse is a different animal now; its form figure is all the market has.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 1,963 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.94 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return +4.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H158: one run at two returns at three
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226520.992023 to a year ago9790.94Last year3320.97Tested15 Oct, 23:10
beaten on debut: A/E 0.94 on 1,677 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.92 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return -1.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H158: one run at two returns at three
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225681.022023 to a year ago8310.92Last year2780.89Tested15 Oct, 23:10
unplaced on debut: A/E 1.00 on 1,342 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.03 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return +6.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H158: one run at two returns at three
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224570.982023 to a year ago6711.03Last year2140.97Tested15 Oct, 23:10
a mile or more: A/E 0.96 on 1,138 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.91 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return +13.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H158: one run at two returns at three
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223941.042023 to a year ago5630.91Last year1810.99Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H158: one run at two returns at three Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [unplaced on debut] RED A/E 1.003 on 1342 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A three-year-old with exactly one run, back after 150+ days in a non-handicap from March to June: the single run at two was an education and the horse is a different animal now; its form figure is all the market has.