H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track KILLED amber

   because NEGATIVE: a two-year-old newcomer at an undulating or very sharp track. Greenness costs most where a horse has to balance, turn and change legs.

   age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND prior_runs = 0 AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' OR track_sharpness = 3)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.97 on 2,997 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.96 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2920.96

   2023 to a year ago1,3300.96

   Last year375

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite or second favourite: A/E 1.07 on 480 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.06 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -12.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222141.13

   2023 to a year ago2161.06

   Last year50

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   undulating and sharp: A/E 0.97 on 1,565 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.95 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return -22.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227190.93

   2023 to a year ago6770.95

   Last year169

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [favourite or second favourite] AMBER A/E 1.074 on 480 bets (broad RED)