H161: top weight in a nursery

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H161: top weight in a nursery KILLED red

   because Top weight in a nursery: between two-year-olds the class gap is wider than the handicapper can bridge after three runs, and the market dislikes the big weight on a baby.

   is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 2,598 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.96 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -3.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H161: top weight in a nursery

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1750.94

   2023 to a year ago1,0310.96

   Last year3920.96

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   field of 10 or more: A/E 0.98 on 1,079 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.04 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return +11.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H161: top weight in a nursery

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225620.92

   2023 to a year ago3981.04

   Last year1191.10

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   won last time: A/E 0.97 on 499 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.90 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +16.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H161: top weight in a nursery

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222131.00

   2023 to a year ago2030.90

   Last year831.04

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.95 on 2,294 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.97 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -0.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H161: top weight in a nursery

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,0170.94

   2023 to a year ago9220.97

   Last year3550.96

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H161: top weight in a nursery Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [field of 10 or more] RED A/E 0.985 on 1079 bets (broad RED)