H164: old stayers

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H164: old stayers KILLED amber

   because Seven-year-olds and older in Flat handicaps over two miles or more: stayers peak late and keep their form for years; the market wants the progressive four-year-old.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 2,607 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.01 · 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return +4.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.12). Zone: all. On H164: old stayers

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,0041.04

   2023 to a year ago1,1571.01

   Last year4461.13

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   turf: A/E 1.07 on 1,584 bets, by period 1.09 · 0.99 · 1.19. info

   Betfair SP return +27.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.19. Zone: all. On H164: old stayers

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226131.09

   2023 to a year ago7090.99

   Last year2621.19

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.08 on 1,324 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.05 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +3.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H164: old stayers

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224851.08

   2023 to a year ago5781.05

   Last year2611.11

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   soft or heavy: A/E 1.09 on 343 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.12. info

   Betfair SP return +3.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H164: old stayers

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221370.85

   2023 to a year ago1741.12

   Last year32–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H164: old stayers Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.093 on 343 bets (broad RED)