Threads · age-hurdle · H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may

H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [four hurdle runs or fewer] NEGATIVE A/E 0.925 on 973 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may PROMISING negative
because Four-year-olds in handicap hurdles from January to April: still juveniles, improving week by week, and the handicapper can only rate what he has seen.
```
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.94 on 1,287 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.92 · 0.79. info
Betfair SP return +55.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224471.05
2023 to a year ago6250.92
Last year215
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
four hurdle runs or fewer: A/E 0.93 on 973 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.96 · 0.88. info
Betfair SP return +85.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223330.90
2023 to a year ago4670.96
Last year173
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
field of 12 or more: A/E 0.97 on 589 bets, by period 0.81 · 1.13 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +158.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222430.81
2023 to a year ago2581.13
Last year88
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.91 on 796 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.90 · 0.67. info
Betfair SP return -40.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.67 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222631.05
2023 to a year ago4030.90
Last year130
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [four hurdle runs or fewer] NEGATIVE A/E 0.925 on 973 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Four-year-olds in handicap hurdles from January to April: still juveniles, improving week by week, and the handicapper can only rate what he has seen.

H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [four hurdle runs or fewer] NEGATIVE A/E 0.925 on 973 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may PROMISING negative
because Four-year-olds in handicap hurdles from January to April: still juveniles, improving week by week, and the handicapper can only rate what he has seen.
```
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.94 on 1,287 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.92 · 0.79. info
Betfair SP return +55.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224471.05
2023 to a year ago6250.92
Last year215
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
four hurdle runs or fewer: A/E 0.93 on 973 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.96 · 0.88. info
Betfair SP return +85.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223330.90
2023 to a year ago4670.96
Last year173
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
field of 12 or more: A/E 0.97 on 589 bets, by period 0.81 · 1.13 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +158.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222430.81
2023 to a year ago2581.13
Last year88
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.91 on 796 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.90 · 0.67. info
Betfair SP return -40.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.67 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222631.05
2023 to a year ago4030.90
Last year130
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [four hurdle runs or fewer] NEGATIVE A/E 0.925 on 973 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Four-year-olds in handicap hurdles from January to April: still juveniles, improving week by week, and the handicapper can only rate what he has seen.