Threads · age-career · H170-old-novice-hurdler
H170: old novice hurdler
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 3847 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H170: old novice hurdler KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: aged seven or more with at most one hurdle run, in a novice or maiden hurdle. A late start usually means a problem, and it meets five-year-olds with their careers ahead of them.
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age >= 7 AND hurdle_runs <= 1 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 3,847 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.98 · 0.53. info
Betfair SP return +194.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.53 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H170: old novice hurdler
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,1551.072023 to a year ago1,3220.98Last year3700.53Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H170: old novice hurdler Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 3847 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: aged seven or more with at most one hurdle run, in a novice or maiden hurdle. A late start usually means a problem, and it meets five-year-olds with their careers ahead of them.