H174: veteran back from a long absence

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H174: veteran back from a long absence KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: a jumper aged ten or more on its first run for 250+ days. Old horses take far longer to get fit and a long absence at that age is rarely a holiday.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 250

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 1,564 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.11 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return -6.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H174: veteran back from a long absence

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224020.89

   2023 to a year ago8801.11

   Last year2821.10

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   first three in the betting: A/E 0.94 on 247 bets, by period 0.82 · 1.02 · 0.85. info

   Betfair SP return -17.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H174: veteran back from a long absence

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22680.82

   2023 to a year ago1361.02

   Last year43

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.98 on 1,018 bets, by period 0.79 · 1.04 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +2.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H174: veteran back from a long absence

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222400.79

   2023 to a year ago5841.04

   Last year1941.04

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H174: veteran back from a long absence Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.049 on 1564 bets (broad RED)