Threads · track-stamina · H181-proven-over-further-at-a-stiff-track

H181: proven over further at a stiff track

Hypotheses: 15 (6 alive)
Depth: 5
Best rung: Live
Open questions: 9
Last activity: 16 Oct, 13:24

Where it stands: When the frozen stiff-sprint rules (H-2b483ac5, H-cbd60237) build up forward bets, does the A/E hold near 1.2 in GB, and does it stay near 1.0 or below in Ireland?

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 1.07 · 7574H181: proven over further at a stiff trackimportgreen
- LIVESystem: Winner over further, sprinting at a stiff trackimport
- KILLEDA/E 1.05 · 4671Rival: dropping in trip after a win over further pays at any track, stiff or notrival-explanationredreached discovery
  - SHADOWA/E 1.13 · 2045Rival: the trip-drop lift is a Flat turf summer effectrival-explanationgreen
    - KILLED

Still open

Is the parent's stiff-track lift in jumps racing different from the trip-drop lift at non-stiff jumps tracks? open
The vault had 141 price-capped bets against only 31 in discovery: is the stiff-sprint population growing over time, or did the windows differ in the share of stiff-track sprint meetings? open
Is the price-capped stiff-sprint edge (1.64 on 141 in the vault) spread across the stiff tracks, or carried by one or two courses or a draw bias at those courses? testing
Does the stiff-sprint edge need a past win over further, or does any recent run over further carry the same signal? testing
Why do Irish stiff-track sprints show no lift (IRE 0.85 on 23) while GB shows 1.75 on 60? Is track_stiff_finish coding a different kind of finish in Ireland, or are the GB bets concentrated on one or two courses? testing
Does the stiff-sprint edge grow with the size of the trip drop (a 660+ yard drop beating a 330 to 659 yard drop), as the stamina-becomes-speed mechanism needs? testing
Why does Ireland keep showing no lift (IRE 0.74 on 25, earlier 0.85 on 23)? Is track_stiff_finish coding Irish courses whose rise comes before the sprint straight, or that have no straight sprint course at all? testing
Why did the broadened last-run rule shrink from about 1.54 in discovery to 1.17 in the vault while the capped last-win rule held 1.64? Is a last win over further the better stamina proof, or is this ordinary shrinkage? open
When the frozen stiff-sprint rules (H-2b483ac5, H-cbd60237) build up forward bets, does the A/E hold near 1.2 in GB, and does it stay near 1.0 or below in Ireland? open

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H181: proven over further at a stiff track PROMISING green
because At a track with a stiff finish, a horse whose last win came over at least a furlong and a half further: the hill turns the trip into a longer one and its stamina becomes speed. The market sees a horse dropping to an inadequate trip.
```
track_stiff_finish = 1 AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 9,279 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.07 · 1.12. info

Where it started

At a track with a stiff finish, a horse whose last win came over at least a furlong and a half further: the hill turns the trip into a longer one and its stamina becomes speed. The market sees a horse dropping to an inadequate trip.

H181: proven over further at a stiff track

Hypotheses

15 (6 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Live

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 13:24

Where it stands: When the frozen stiff-sprint rules (H-2b483ac5, H-cbd60237) build up forward bets, does the A/E hold near 1.2 in GB, and does it stay near 1.0 or below in Ireland?

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 1.07 · 7574H181: proven over further at a stiff trackimportgreen
- LIVESystem: Winner over further, sprinting at a stiff trackimport
- KILLEDA/E 1.05 · 4671Rival: dropping in trip after a win over further pays at any track, stiff or notrival-explanationredreached discovery
  - SHADOWA/E 1.13 · 2045Rival: the trip-drop lift is a Flat turf summer effectrival-explanationgreen
    - KILLED

Still open

Is the parent's stiff-track lift in jumps racing different from the trip-drop lift at non-stiff jumps tracks? open
The vault had 141 price-capped bets against only 31 in discovery: is the stiff-sprint population growing over time, or did the windows differ in the share of stiff-track sprint meetings? open
Is the price-capped stiff-sprint edge (1.64 on 141 in the vault) spread across the stiff tracks, or carried by one or two courses or a draw bias at those courses? testing
Does the stiff-sprint edge need a past win over further, or does any recent run over further carry the same signal? testing
Why do Irish stiff-track sprints show no lift (IRE 0.85 on 23) while GB shows 1.75 on 60? Is track_stiff_finish coding a different kind of finish in Ireland, or are the GB bets concentrated on one or two courses? testing
Does the stiff-sprint edge grow with the size of the trip drop (a 660+ yard drop beating a 330 to 659 yard drop), as the stamina-becomes-speed mechanism needs? testing
Why does Ireland keep showing no lift (IRE 0.74 on 25, earlier 0.85 on 23)? Is track_stiff_finish coding Irish courses whose rise comes before the sprint straight, or that have no straight sprint course at all? testing
Why did the broadened last-run rule shrink from about 1.54 in discovery to 1.17 in the vault while the capped last-win rule held 1.64? Is a last win over further the better stamina proof, or is this ordinary shrinkage? open
When the frozen stiff-sprint rules (H-2b483ac5, H-cbd60237) build up forward bets, does the A/E hold near 1.2 in GB, and does it stay near 1.0 or below in Ireland? open

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H181: proven over further at a stiff track PROMISING green
because At a track with a stiff finish, a horse whose last win came over at least a furlong and a half further: the hill turns the trip into a longer one and its stamina becomes speed. The market sees a horse dropping to an inadequate trip.
```
track_stiff_finish = 1 AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 9,279 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.07 · 1.12. info