H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track KILLED red

   because Up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, at a sharp or speed track with no stiff finish: the easiest place to get a new trip, and the market prices the stamina doubt the same everywhere.

   ((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0) AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 16,836 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.03 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -10.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226,8111.01

   2023 to a year ago7,3881.03

   Last year2,637

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.014 on 16836 bets (broad RED)