H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H184: stamina in the bank on heavy PROMISING amber

   because Jumps on heavy ground, last win over at least a quarter of a mile further than today: on heavy every race is run over a longer trip than the one on the card.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 1,378 bets, by period 0.81 · 1.20 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return +36.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223750.81

   2023 to a year ago6441.20

   Last year3591.17

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   testing-ground track: A/E 0.87 on 454 bets, by period 0.59 · 1.04 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return +21.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.59 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221220.59

   2023 to a year ago2141.04

   Last year1180.89

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 1.03 on 691 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.18 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -17.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221860.80

   2023 to a year ago3281.18

   Last year1770.96

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   beaten last time: A/E 1.11 on 1,077 bets, by period 0.84 · 1.22 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +38.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.22. Zone: all. On H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222750.84

   2023 to a year ago5111.22

   Last year2911.18

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H184: stamina in the bank on heavy Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [beaten last time] AMBER A/E 1.111 on 1077 bets (broad AMBER)