H186: never won this way round

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H186: never won this way round PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: two or more wins, six or more runs on today's hand, and none of the wins on it.

   track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND prior_direction_runs >= 6 AND prior_direction_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.92 on 11,013 bets, by period 0.85 · 0.93 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -17.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H186: never won this way round

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,0660.85

   2023 to a year ago6,5170.93

   Last year2,4300.98

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.94 on 1,650 bets, by period 0.65 · 0.95 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return +30.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.65 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H186: never won this way round

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222150.65

   2023 to a year ago9920.95

   Last year4431.08

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   first three in the betting: A/E 0.97 on 3,139 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.97 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return 0.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H186: never won this way round

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226380.90

   2023 to a year ago1,7940.97

   Last year707

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H186: never won this way round Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.924 on 11013 bets (broad NEGATIVE)