Threads · track-weight · H194-top-weight-on-quick-ground-at-an-easy-track
H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 4974 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track KILLED red
because Top weight in a jumps handicap on good or faster ground at a sharp or speed track: weight is carried most easily where the race is fastest and shortest, so class wins.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND ((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0)made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 4,974 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.03 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return -10.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,1360.972023 to a year ago2,0031.03Last year835Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 4974 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Top weight in a jumps handicap on good or faster ground at a sharp or speed track: weight is carried most easily where the race is fastest and shortest, so class wins.