H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: six or more runs, none on an artificial surface, and on the all-weather today. The turf form sets the price; the surface is a different game with kickback and no give.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND flat_runs >= 6

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 3,122 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.00 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -22.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,3781.00

   2023 to a year ago1,2931.00

   Last year4510.98

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 3122 bets (broad RED)