Threads · track-surface · H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf

H197: all weather horse first time on turf

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.91 on 1697 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H197: all weather horse first time on turf PROMISING negative
because Four or more runs, all on the all-weather, and on turf for the first time. Two-sided: the market distrusts all-weather form on grass, and the mark was earned on a different surface.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.92 on 1,835 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.85 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228090.95
2023 to a year ago7660.85
Last year260
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.91 on 1,697 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.86 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -24.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227490.94
2023 to a year ago7080.86
Last year2400.94
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
good or faster: A/E 0.86 on 1,286 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.80 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -14.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225740.86
2023 to a year ago5180.80
Last year194
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.91 on 974 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.89 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -9.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224340.91
2023 to a year ago4080.89
Last year132
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H197: all weather horse first time on turf Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.91 on 1697 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Four or more runs, all on the all-weather, and on turf for the first time. Two-sided: the market distrusts all-weather form on grass, and the mark was earned on a different surface.

H197: all weather horse first time on turf

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.91 on 1697 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H197: all weather horse first time on turf PROMISING negative
because Four or more runs, all on the all-weather, and on turf for the first time. Two-sided: the market distrusts all-weather form on grass, and the mark was earned on a different surface.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.92 on 1,835 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.85 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228090.95
2023 to a year ago7660.85
Last year260
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.91 on 1,697 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.86 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -24.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227490.94
2023 to a year ago7080.86
Last year2400.94
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
good or faster: A/E 0.86 on 1,286 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.80 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -14.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225740.86
2023 to a year ago5180.80
Last year194
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.91 on 974 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.89 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -9.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H197: all weather horse first time on turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224340.91
2023 to a year ago4080.89
Last year132
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H197: all weather horse first time on turf Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.91 on 1697 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Four or more runs, all on the all-weather, and on turf for the first time. Two-sided: the market distrusts all-weather form on grass, and the mark was earned on a different surface.