Threads · race-class · H205-favourite-in-the-lowest-grade-of-flat-handicap
H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 11389 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: the favourite in a class 6 Flat handicap. The worst horses are the least consistent; a favourite's price assumes it will repeat its form.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND race_class = 6 AND is_favourite = 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 11,389 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.99 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -0.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224,1711.002023 to a year ago5,3470.99Last year1,871Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 11389 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the favourite in a class 6 Flat handicap. The worst horses are the least consistent; a favourite's price assumes it will repeat its form.